Whoa, Nellie! Empirical Tests of College Football's Conventional Wisdom

I'm not enough of a sports fan to want to spend the $5 it costs to read it, but this academic paper sounds intriguing and the kind of thing -- in theory -- statistics-oriented newspaper reporters could do, if so inclined. It's by an economist at Ohio State who specializes in economic history, economic demography, and biodemography:

College football fans, coaches, and observers have adopted a set of beliefs about how college football poll voters behave. I document three pieces of conventional wisdom in college football regarding the timing of wins and losses, the value of playing strong opponents, and the value of winning by wide margins. Using a unique data set with 25 years of AP poll results, I test college football's conventional wisdom. In particular, I test (1) whether it is better to lose early or late in the season, (2) whether teams benefit from playing stronger opponents, and (3) whether teams are rewarded for winning by large margins. Contrary to conventional wisdom, I find that (1) it is better to lose later in the season than earlier, (2) AP voters do not pay attention to the strength of a defeated opponent, and (3) the benefit of winning by a large margin is negligible. I conclude by noting how these results inform debates about a potential playoff in college football.

Passion Pulse

Passion Pulse is an Australian TV station's slick variation of the standard -- and highly unscientific -- reader "poll" that purports to gauge the mood of the public by surveying only those who waste their time responding to such questions.

Each day during the election, we will be asking our audience to react to a choice quote from a politician, commentator or newsmaker. Voters react using a slider to indicate whether they strongly agree or disagree with the statement, or if they care at all. We then tally this information along with some basic demographic information about each voter.

From the results page, you will be able to learn not just what the country thinks, but what people with certain voting intentions think, how the sexes differ, and even how voters from within your own state or electorate are reacting.

The "mountain" graphic at the top of the page shows the overall size of the response to each daily quote, indicating the general interest or passion a topic is generating.

Gallup Guru blog

The USA Today's Gallup Guru is a blog on polling by Frank Newport, the editor in chief of the Gallup Poll and the author of Polling Matters.

Judging polls

With the election three weeks away, polls are coming fast and furious. The American Association of Public Opinion Research's Press Room offers a collection of resources on understanding surveys and judging their quality. These include:

• Their Code of Professional Ethics and Practices
• Survey practices they condemn
• Defining a push poll (PDF)
• A primer on variation in poll results (PDF)

Their page also links to resources elsewhere . I've updated a few links here because they had gone stale:

• The American Statistical Assocation on "What is a Survey?" (PDF) Of special interest is Chapter 4, "Judging the Quality of a Survey."
• The National Council on Public Polls: 20 Questions A Journalist Should Ask About Poll Results
• The AP Stylebook on polls and surveys (PDF)

Mystery Pollster

Myster Pollster is a blog about polling.