When I was a political science and economics major in the early 1980s, both fields typically constructed elaborate theories on sand -- whether it was Marxists spinning elaborate superstructures whose inner contradictions soon became only too apparent, or economists building economic models that always assumed away everything interesting and difficult about the world. It's heartening, therefore, to read that both fields are becoming more empirical, a trend driven by cheap computers and the vast quantities of data now being generated:
The quantitative social sciences are in the midst of a revolution in understanding the world and solving real problems. A dramatic increase in progress is now achievable because: 1) changes in technology enable us to collect and store unprecedented amounts of far more informative data about human populations and institutions; 2) new policies encourage the collection of data and its provision to researchers, including the computerization and automation of many government services, new data collection requirements, e.g., the No Child Left Behind Act, and the growing movement in science to make data publicly available; and 3) the development of novel methods of data collection and analysis that make it possible for scholars to extract information from new data, such as from the rise of social experiments that enable reliable causal inferences in major issues of public policy, natural language processing that enables scientists to extract information from millions of Web sites, newspapers, emails or other textual sources, and new informatics techniques that provide instant and reliably persistent, access to the world's data.
So says Gary King, the directory of the Institute for Quantitative Social Science at Harvard, in an interview for the Data Mining Review. Some of that data and a tiny fraction of the techniques he discusses may one day be adopted by journalists, who are the protozoa of the fact-based universe. More than a few gut-trusting editors, incidentally, would just guffaw at this quote from King: "The central conclusion of research in hundreds of fields and most of the hundreds of thousands of applications is the same: Whenever a sufficiently important fraction of information can be quantified, statistical analysis beats qualitative human judgment. There is just no contest."